`Gambler's fallacy' trips up goalkeepers during penalty shoot-outs
Goalkeepers facing penalty shoot-outs make a predictable error that could influence the outcome, say researchers.British psychologists have found that after three kicks in the same direction, goalies were more likely to dive the opposite way on the next shot.
A University College London (UCL) research that studied 361 kicks from the 37 penalty shoot outs that occurred in World Cup and UEFA Euro Cup matches over a 36-year period shows penalty shoot-outs in international tournaments resemble a psychological game.
It found each team of kickers produced more or less random sequences of kicks to the left or the right of the goal. Goalkeepers' dives to the left or the right were not related to the direction of the kick, suggesting goalkeepers at this elite level make their decisions in advance, rather than reacting to each kick.
However, their decisions were non-random in one crucial respect: when the kickers repeatedly kicked in the same direction on consecutive penalties, goalkeepers became more likely to dive in the opposite direction on the next penalty .
The goalkeepers, therefore, display what has been called the `gambler's fallacy' -like a person who believes that after coin flips produce a run of `heads', the next flip is bound to produce `tails'. “Complete randomness is generally the best strategy in competitive games,“ says lead author Erman Misirlisoy of the UCL Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience who studied penalty shoot-out videos from all World Cup and Euro finals tournaments between 1976 and 2012.
“Because the goalkeeper displays the gambler's fallacy , kickers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick. That would obviously give the kicker an advantage -they would simply aim for the opposite side of the goal. Surprisingly , though, we found that kickers failed to exploit this advantage.“
Four knockout games in the recently concluded football World Cup in Brazil were decided by penalties.
A University College London (UCL) research that studied 361 kicks from the 37 penalty shoot outs that occurred in World Cup and UEFA Euro Cup matches over a 36-year period shows penalty shoot-outs in international tournaments resemble a psychological game.
It found each team of kickers produced more or less random sequences of kicks to the left or the right of the goal. Goalkeepers' dives to the left or the right were not related to the direction of the kick, suggesting goalkeepers at this elite level make their decisions in advance, rather than reacting to each kick.
However, their decisions were non-random in one crucial respect: when the kickers repeatedly kicked in the same direction on consecutive penalties, goalkeepers became more likely to dive in the opposite direction on the next penalty .
The goalkeepers, therefore, display what has been called the `gambler's fallacy' -like a person who believes that after coin flips produce a run of `heads', the next flip is bound to produce `tails'. “Complete randomness is generally the best strategy in competitive games,“ says lead author Erman Misirlisoy of the UCL Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience who studied penalty shoot-out videos from all World Cup and Euro finals tournaments between 1976 and 2012.
“Because the goalkeeper displays the gambler's fallacy , kickers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick. That would obviously give the kicker an advantage -they would simply aim for the opposite side of the goal. Surprisingly , though, we found that kickers failed to exploit this advantage.“
Four knockout games in the recently concluded football World Cup in Brazil were decided by penalties.
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